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The years 2000, 2007, and 2022. Three market declines, three very different causes, but one common warning sign. In each case, the market entered the downturn from a place of elevated valuation. That is where the Shiller CAPE ratio becomes useful. Robert Shiller was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics for his work on why markets can become disconnected from fundamentals for extended periods. It followed his previous work on market valuation and the long-run stock market outl

People like to talk about success as if it arrives in a flash of brilliance. It makes for interesting conversation, but it’s usually wrong. Pixar, the iconic maker of animated films, figured out something most investors eventually learn the hard way: the first idea is seldom the winning idea. Ed Catmull, one of Pixar’s founders, made this point. Too many people overestimate the brilliance of the original concept. How did Pixar produce consistent box office success and positiv

Just 25 years ago, the estate and gift tax exemption was $675,000. More than 50,000 estates paid estate taxes. Fast forward: estate planning used to be about planning for incapacity and estate taxes. But the high exemption of $15 million ($30 million for couples) has left only about 2,000 estates subject to the tax. Planning has changed, but tax planning hasn’t disappeared; it’s just moved to income tax management for couples and survivors. For married couples especially, the

It won’t be long before financial journalism finds a new story about Social Security ‘running out of money.’ Following the false reports of “no tax on Social Security” (not true). The Social Security Act requires the Trustees to report each year to Congress on the financial and actuarial status of the trust funds. The most recent Report in June 2025 was followed by headlines declaring, “Social Security is “running out of money.” The latest Trustees Report deserves attention b

Civilization has always moved in cycles. Families move in cycles too: our working years, retirement, and that little-appreciated period between the two ─ before Social Security and Required Minimum Distributions begin. The more you recognize them, the more you can use them instead of letting them use you. A couple sits at the kitchen table with a stack of statements, a note pad, and more uncertainty than they expected to feel after doing so many things right. They saved for y

FinTok Fact Check: Three Retirement Claims Graded     The renowned artist-engineer, Leonardo Da Vinci, is best remembered for creating Mona Lisa, The Last Supper, and the Vitruvian Man. From 7,000 pages of journals, we know some of how he worked.  This luminary made no distinction between art and science. When creating the Vitruvian Man, he made 230 measurements before drawing the portrait.  His works couple scientific sophistication with beauty. Although brilliant, his notes

Roth Conversions: Social Media Advice Misses the Math Roth conversions are everywhere right now. Scroll financial media long enough and you’ll hear the same refrains: “Taxes are going up.” “Convert to fill your tax bracket.” “Pay tax once, never again.” Sometimes that advice is correct. Most of the time it’s incomplete, untested, or bad advice. Tax-rate arbitrage is one variable in the decision, and arguably not the most important. You’re paying tax today to avoid tax tomorro

Private Markets and Your 401(k): Promises, Policy, and Practical Questions You may start hearing more about private equity or private market investments showing up inside workplace retirement plans. That discussion didn’t appear overnight. It’s the result of years of policy debate, industry advocacy, and evolving views about where economic growth now happens. Before reacting strongly, it helps to separate headlines from history and insight. In 2020, federal regulators clarifi

Most conversations about health care costs start in the obvious places — medical insurance premiums, deductibles, co‑pays, prescription costs. Those are the bills we actually see, so naturally they dominate how we think about the issue. But the full cost of health care is much broader, and far less visible. It includes the taxes funding Medicare, Medicaid, Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies, veterans’ health care, public health programs, disability‑related Social Securit

The 2026 Winter Olympic Games in Milan-Cortina, Italy are underway. By the numbers, the summer games first held in Athens in 1896 dominate with twice the sporting competitions and almost four times more athletes. But not for Minnesota, the land of five-month winters. In number, Minnesota’s 24 athletes in these Games trail only Colorado with 30, and beyond the number, the athletes are powerhouses in women’s and men’s hockey, Alpine and Nordic skiing, curling, and speed skating

Minnesota artist Phil Hansen holds the Guinness World Record for biggest connect-the-dots puzzle, a stunning image of a Native American elder referred to as Big Head by early 20th century photographer, Edward Curtis, created using almost 53,000 dots. The challenge was more than it seemed. Most of the numbers to complete the puzzle were five digits long, each dot taking more and more space. To solve that problem, Mr. Hansen had to create a coded system and a key to follow it.

Every so often, the markets stop whispering and start speaking plainly. Not in panic, but in a way that deserves attention. That’s where we are today. Over the past year, gold has moved above $5,000 per ounce and silver has crossed $100 per ounce. Both are more than double where they traded not that long ago. On their own, price moves don’t tell a full story. Markets overshoot and narratives change. But history suggests that sustained moves into hard assets tend to show up wh

Most of us forget about how big things started small. It’s a good way to think about your family wealth, your business, or your investments. Big successes are usually just small ideas that stayed alive long enough to grow. Take Amazon. Before it was AWS cloud computing and same-day delivery, it was an online bookstore run out of a garage. The launch of Marketplace was rocky, starting as Auctions, morphing into zShops, and finally succeeding as Marketplace. A narrow wedge. A s

First impressions matter. In music, in people—and in financial advice. One of the greatest rock guitarists of all time also holds a PhD in astrophysics, which might give you pause. That tension between expectation and reality is the point. Brian May, the legendary lead guitarist of Queen, is also a trained physicist who returned decades later to finish his doctorate. He builds guitar harmonies the way an engineer designs bridges—layer by layer, with precision, intention, and

I recall sitting across from a business owner who was frustrated with the cost of borrowing. The bank wanted covenants. The interest rate felt high. The paperwork was burdensome. And then he said something that stuck with me: “I save money by being the lender.” My follow-up question was not about interest or markets, but about ownership. If the bank offered to own part of his company instead of lending the money, would that feel like a better deal? He didn’t hesitate. “Absolu

Few works of literature have left the imprint on Western culture as The Iliad and The Odyssey, Homer’s twin poems that chronicle events surrounding the Trojan War but also delve into timeless themes of heroism, honor, and the search for a meaningful life. The most remarkable people, we learn, are not those with the greatest treasure, but those with what we might call a ‘Wealthy Soul.’ The Greeks regarded the epic stories as something more than works of literature; they knew m

You’ve been hearing about immediate annuities and wondering if they’re a good idea. Maybe you’re getting close to retirement, or you’ve come into a chunk of money and want to make it last. Whatever your reason, here’s a quick breakdown of the  good  and the  not-so-good  when it comes to immediate annuities. First, What’s an Immediate Annuity? An immediate annuity is when you give an insurance company a lump sum of money, and they start paying you a fixed amount right away —

If you’ve ever looked into annuities, you’ve probably run into something called an  “income rider.”  And if you’re like most people, you probably thought:  What on earth is that? If the name sounds unfamiliar, the idea behind it is pretty simple (and kind of clever). So, What  Is  an Income Rider? Let’s start here: an  income rider  is an optional feature you can add to an annuity — kind of like adding heated seats when you buy a car. You don’t  need  it, but it can make the

Annuities can sound confusing. There are so many types, terms, and “guarantees” thrown around that it’s easy to tune out. But if you’re someone thinking ahead about retirement, one kind of annuity might make a lot of sense for you: the  deferred annuity . Let’s break it down — when (and why) a deferred annuity might fit into your plans. What’s a Deferred Annuity? Think of a deferred annuity as a  “later” income plan. You invest money now — either in one lump sum or gradually

Reading a variable annuity prospectus feels like reading another language. It’s long, full of fine print, and … kind of boring. But if you’re investing your hard-earned money into one, it’s worth knowing what you’re signing up for. Here’s how to make sense of it — without falling asleep halfway through.  1. Start with the Basics The first few pages tell you  what product you’re actually looking at  — the company name, product name, and date. Annuities change over time, so mak